Beware the Sunken Cost Fallacy
How to Stop Spending Time on Your Mistakes and Move Forward
“I’ll just ride it out”, I said. Knowing that we were already in so much debt. Knowing that I was burned out. Knowing that I was not fulfilled. It felt heavy, those words - as if no matter what I did, I was doomed to be tied to my past decisions, unable to see that I could cut that weight loose and move on. We've all been there—holding onto something because we've already put so much time, energy, or money into it. Whether it's a failing project, a relationship that’s lost its spark, or a hobby you no longer enjoy, the investment you’ve made can feel like a chain keeping you anchored to the past. This is where the sunken cost fallacy comes into play, and it can be a powerful force that prevents you from moving forward. It can be even more challenging when your identity is intertwined with said decision (I’m the owner of X, I am the wife of Y, I am the captain of the Z team). Both ourselves and those around us may find more comfort in our stasis (even if unhappy) than in the uncertainty of us changing.
What Is the Sunken Cost Fallacy?
The sunken cost fallacy is a cognitive bias that leads us to make irrational decisions based on the cumulative investment we've already made rather than the future benefits of continuing. It’s the voice in your head saying, “I’ve already spent so much time on this, I can’t just quit now,” even when the situation is no longer serving you. I hear it a lot from entrepreneurs and folks in relationships - particularly as we hit our 40s and beyond. By now, we’ve dedicated decades to our careers, marriages, the area we live in, even who we are (I’m introverted, I am vegan, I love soccer, I don’t like eggplant, etc…).
Why We Fall Into the Trap
This fallacy is rooted in our aversion to loss and our fear of the unknown. We hate the idea of “wasting” resources, so we convince ourselves that continuing will somehow validate our past decisions. But this thinking is flawed - when we cling to things that no longer serve us, we’re actually doing more harm than good. The resources we continue to pour in—whether they be time, money, or emotional energy—are unlikely to yield a positive return if the endeavor is fundamentally flawed. Imagine if a car was constantly costing you money - every day it was a new part, another service, a delay again because your battery died, even if it was once your dream car that you pined after and saved for…it is definitely not serving you now. In fact, you’re losing - not only your time, money and resources, but your aggregated frustration, disappointment, and anger are going to impact every other area of your life. Sure, you’ve still got that car you wanted so much - but you’re snapping at everyone all day long, stress-eating, you picked smoking back up and you’re consistently late everywhere which is affecting your relationships. Is it still better to hang on to it?
Recognizing the Signs
How do you know if you’re falling victim to the sunken cost fallacy? Here are a few signs:
You’re justifying staying with something because of how much you’ve already invested.
You feel a sense of obligation rather than joy or purpose.
The benefits of continuing no longer outweigh the costs.
You’re saying things like:
“I said I would, so I will.”
“This is who I’ve always been.”
"I've already spent so much money on this, I can't quit now."
"I’ve been in this __ for years; leaving now would mean all that time was wasted."
"I’ve come this far, I might as well see it through."
"I can't give up now; what would people think of all the effort I’ve put in?"
If any of these resonate with you, it’s time to reassess.
The Unknown vs. The Known
Imagine you are in neck-deep water in the middle of a deep lake - I know, it might not feel like a stretch depending on where you are in life right now. You’re barely keeping your head above water - whether that’s with finances, constantly fighting with your spouse, maybe an addiction you can’t quite shake, a job that drains you daily, or you literally have the nightmare of a car I talked about in the first paragraph. The more you struggle with this issue that doesn’t serve you, the more exhausted you become. The higher the probability that you will sink below the surface until you can no longer thrive. It hasn’t served you in a long time, and simply because it once did doesn’t mean you owe it the rest of your life or energy. You cannot swim to shore with a lead weight tied around your waist, no matter how hard you swim. In order to move forward, you must let go of what is dragging you down.
We struggle at this precise moment - we know the discomfort of what we have, we know what it costs us, who accepts us as-is and we know how it feels. We don’t know what freedom will feel like, we don’t know who will be there as we change, we don’t know what else a change will impact. The fear of the unknown often outweighs the current pain. Until those scales tip and we begin to suspect that our current situation is worse than the risk of change, we will stay precisely where we are - often blaming everyone and everything around us for the predicament. Once we acknowledge that we have the ability to choose a better, even if uncertain future, we can move forward.
How to Break Free
Acknowledge the Fallacy: The first step is recognizing that your past investment is a sunk cost—irretrievable and irrelevant to future decisions.
Focus on Future Value: Ask yourself, “What benefits will continuing bring me?” If the answer is “not much,” it may be time to let go.
Embrace Change: Understand that letting go is not failure. It’s a strategic decision to redirect your resources towards something more fulfilling or productive.
Seek Support: Sometimes, it’s hard to see the situation clearly when you’re in the middle of it. Talk to someone you trust who can provide an outside perspective.
The Power of Letting Go
You have one precious life, and the length of time you have left is uncertain. The true measure of your worth isn’t in the things you cling to out of habit, fear, or past investment, but in the choices you make as you move forward. Each decision shapes the path ahead, so if something no longer serves your growth or happiness, give yourself the grace to release it.
Letting go might mean:
Asking your partner to go to counseling, even if that means admitting your share of the wrongs.
Admitting you are unable to control your drinking/eating/scrolling, and seeking help.
Realizing you are upside down in your mortgage and getting a roommate to offset costs.
Talking to your boss about your issues at work - consider a different department or get a recruiter to assist in a new place.
Realizing you don’t want to be in the career you are in and be willing to learn a new skill.
Packing up your house and moving to a Greek island full of cats, sunshine and dancing ;)
At any given moment you have a dozen, a hundred, maybe thousands of possible outcomes before you. When we are so exhausted by what we are hanging on to, we lack the energy to properly dream of more. By letting go, you free yourself to embrace new possibilities. Your future self will look back and thank you for the courage to choose wisely and live authentically.
My deepest wish is that each of you understand that you are worthy of a wildly fulfilling and joyous life. It took me years to convince myself of the same, but from this side of things? You 100% are.
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